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India’s Q3 Export Outlook: A Resilient Rebound Amidst Challenges

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Forecasted Growth in Challenging Times

The Export-Import Bank of India anticipates a noteworthy rebound in India’s merchandise exports during the October-December quarter (Q3) of FY2024. Predicting a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, the bank foresees total merchandise exports reaching $111.2 billion. This positive trajectory is a welcomed shift following the negative growth experienced in the first two quarters of the fiscal year.

Non-Oil Exports Set to Surge

Non-oil exports, a significant contributor, are expected to witness a robust growth of 7.7%, amounting to $88.1 billion. The optimistic outlook is attributed to improved expectations in India’s GDP growth and the global easing of monetary policies, fostering increased global demand.

Resilience Amidst Global Challenges

Despite challenges like supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, India’s total merchandise exports have consistently surpassed $100 billion for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 FY2022. The anticipated growth in the first nine months of FY2024 is set to amount to $323 billion, with non-oil exports contributing an estimated $258 billion during the same period.

Caution Amid Optimism

While the forecast is positive, the Exim Bank remains cautious, acknowledging potential risks such as uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation. The outlook underscores the delicate balance India maintains in the evolving global economic landscape.

Export Leading Index (ELI): A Key Forecasting Tool

To bolster its research initiatives, Exim Bank has developed an in-house Export Leading Index (ELI) for India. This tool has the capacity to monitor and forecast on the basis of movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. Thus creating an insights into the country’s export growth. It is based on various external and domestic factors. As per the Bank statement.

Continued Positive Trajectory

With these projections, India’s total merchandise exports for the first nine months of FY2024 are expected to reach $323 billion, with non-oil exports contributing $258 billion. The bank anticipates the positive growth trend to persist in the final quarter of the financial year.

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